PM defamation case

Fake news spreads faster, says expert in PM libel suit

Academic estimates blogger's post appeared on Facebook news feeds of 11,749 users

Dr Phan Tuan Quang said a minimum of 200 to 400 Singaporeans would have accessed the post and the article. The very conservative estimates took into account factors like the Government's rebuttals of the article which had been widely published by new
Dr Phan Tuan Quang said a minimum of 200 to 400 Singaporeans would have accessed the post and the article. The very conservative estimates took into account factors like the Government's rebuttals of the article which had been widely published by news outlets. PHOTO: PHAN TUAN QUANG

An expert witness yesterday told the High Court that a Facebook post sharing an article with "shocking" allegations about Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong would have spread more quickly than articles correcting the fake news.

Dr Phan Tuan Quang from the Hong Kong University Business School, testifying at the defamation trial against blogger Leong Sze Hian, had estimated that Mr Leong's post would have appeared on the Facebook news feeds of 11,749 users.

But this was characterised as "guesswork" by Mr Leong's lawyer Lim Tean, who pointed out the academic did not have actual data about the post to work with.

The virality of Mr Leong's post, which contained a link to an article falsely connecting PM Lee to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) corruption scandal, came under scrutiny as PM Lee watched on in the courtroom on the second day of the hearing.

Dr Phan, an associate professor of innovation and information management with 15 years of research experience on social media under his belt, had said a minimum of 200 to 400 Singaporeans would have accessed the post and the article.

These were very conservative estimates that took into account factors like the Government's rebuttals of the article which had been widely published by news outlets, he added.

But Mr Lim said the figures were questionable as Dr Phan "had hardly any data, or evidence to work on, and your entire report is based on a series of assumptions". Disagreeing, Dr Phan said he had worked with Facebook's data science teams quite extensively and published four papers on their data set.

His estimates were based on public Facebook data and statistical analysis, he added. "What I'm presenting is both public research and expert comments and views on how many people might have seen the post... It's not baseless."

While he did not get to see Mr Leong's Facebook post which was taken down by Nov 10, 2018, Dr Phan said he did see screenshots of the post and Mr Leong's timeline.

He also said the figures quoted were the "least number of people" who might have seen the post.

Owing to the "shocking" nature of the allegations - the article had said that PM Lee was "corrupted" and had allowed the banks here to abet former Malaysian premier Najib Razak in money laundering - the post and article would have been novel to people, he added.

He further said that researchers have found this "novelty" factor contributes to the virality of fake news.

Mr Lim countered that the long-running 1MDB saga had been covered in the news extensively and could not have been novel by the time Mr Leong shared the article.

To this, Dr Phan said: "It is novel because of the connection with Mr Lee... (The article) was quite shocking, that's why it was covered...

"Otherwise, it would not be mentioned and we wouldn't be here."

He added that based on his research, fake news moves faster than real news and can reach a "maximum penetration" in 1,000 minutes, or about 16 hours.

This means a particular post by a person can reach his friends and friends of his friends, all the way down a chain that is 15 levels removed from him in that time.

Mr Lim then referred to news reports about government agencies and officials refuting the allegations, asking Dr Phan if people who saw Mr Leong's post might have seen the news reports and been aware that the article is bogus.

Yes, Dr Phan said, adding that he had taken this into consideration in determining the spread of the post.

He also agreed with Mr Lim that more people might have seen the rebuttals than Mr Leong's post.

But he said there was reason to believe the people who saw Mr Leong's post may not be the same as those who would have read the rebuttals in the mainstream media.

The algorithm of Facebook prioritises content on people's news feeds based on their proclivities, he said, adding: "It's been well studied that people who follow certain characters or personalities on social media are looking for certain information."

Dr Phan's independence was also called into doubt yesterday, with Mr Lim saying that since he had previously received research grants from the Singapore Government and its agencies, he could not be said to be independent.

One such grant from the Ministry of Education, awarded to a research team that Dr Phan was a part of when he was a professor at the National University of Singapore from August 2011 to May this year, had come up to $8.2 million.

Mr Lim charged: "Your evidence is tainted by the fact that you have a past relationship with the Singapore Government of which (Mr Lee) is the head."

Maintaining that he has no past or present relationship with PM Lee and had never met him in person, Dr Phan said it was common for academics to work on research projects involving government bodies and to get such grants. He also said they were objectively awarded by an assortment of institutions.

As an academic, he had the freedom to do unbiased research, he added. He also noted that the research direction is decided not by one person, but by a team including researchers outside Singapore.

"Mr Lim, I am here to assist the court...When something is true, it is true. There is a truth. I cannot put it in other ways," he said.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on October 08, 2020, with the headline Fake news spreads faster, says expert in PM libel suit. Subscribe