HONG KONG • Hopes of the West going out on a limb to pressure and confront Beijing into making concessions on matters such as autonomy and universal suffrage, as demanded by protesters and the opposition camp in Hong Kong, are unrealistic, political observers have pointed out.
The reason is Hong Kong is of "peripheral interest" to the West regardless of its role as China's financial gateway to the rest of the world.
Mr Sean King, an affiliated scholar at the University of Notre Dame's Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, noted that while Hong Kong matters to the United States in terms of values, Singapore is more important to US multinationals.
As for Britain, Mr King said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may be upset with Beijing over its handling of the pandemic but "he'll choose his China battles".
Late last month, Associate Professor Brian Fong of the Education University of Hong Kong wrote that time is running out for the West to decide if it wants to pull out or keep a foothold in the territory.
He listed two broad options.
One, quit Hong Kong and end the West's recognition of Hong Kong's autonomous status.
Two, forcefully defend Hong Kong's autonomy and maintain its presence in the city.
To pull out will make sense if the West considers it too late to prevent China from completely bringing the city under its control, he wrote. If that was the case, the West can shift its economic interests to other Western spheres of influence in East Asia.
"Once the pullout has been completed, the West can terminate their recognition of Hong Kong's autonomous status so as to plug the loophole in their containment of China," said Prof Fong.
But if, for instance, the West considers Hong Kong to have irreplaceable geopolitical value for influencing China, then "they have to forcefully defend" the city's autonomy.
Dr Lau Siu Kai, of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said some believe Beijing will make concessions because of public opinion and US interference.
"But Hong Kong has reached a stage where Beijing feels national security, national sovereignty, territorial integrity are under threat," added Dr Lau.
Hong Kongers are pragmatic, he said, so they will adjust their thinking. "I don't expect the Hong Kong people to be so unrealistic and irrational as to be willing to pay a heavy price to confront Beijing (alone)."
Meanwhile, the US has postponed its report on Hong Kong's autonomy, that could lead to sanctions, until after the Chinese government's annual legislative session.
