News analysis

What if Trump loses? His reply 'I have to see' sparks speculation

US President says he's not a good loser, and intensifies talk of alleged vote-rigging as November election nears

US President Donald Trump over the weekend fuelled speculation he would not accept the result if he were to lose in November's election.

In an often testy interview with Fox News host Chris Wallace, aired on Sunday, Mr Trump was asked directly if he would accept a loss. The President replied: "I will have to see."

"Look, you - I have to see. No, I'm not going to just say 'yes'. I'm not going to say 'no' and I didn't last time either," Mr Trump said.

Mr Wallace asked the President at one point whether he was "a good loser". He responded by saying that he was not.

The President also repeated what he said in recent weeks and months - that he thinks mail-in voting will be liable to fraud to rig the Nov 3 election. "I think mail-in voting is going to rig the election. I really do," he said.

It was in that context that Mr Wallace asked the direct question about losing the vote.

The idea that President Trump may not accept the result if he loses - and especially if he loses narrowly - has been gaining ground in Washington, including in diplomatic circles, for some weeks as he has ramped up concerns about alleged rigging.

On June 22, for example, Mr Trump tweeted that the election would be rigged, with "millions of mail-in ballots… printed by foreign countries, and others".

But analysts have said there is no reason to believe that mail-in ballots, while assuming more importance as the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic could affect physical turnout at the polls, will lead to a rigged election.

However, that the President's own words indicate he could refuse to accept the result if he loses makes such a scenario plausible, even if still improbable.

If it were to transpire, it would be both a test of the strength and resilience of US institutions, and a test of which vision of America will ultimately prevail.

To be sure, talk does not mean action. President Trump is adept at creating tension and distraction. In fact, in 2016, during a campaign debate with his rival Hillary Clinton, when asked - also by Mr Wallace, who was one of the moderators - he also said: "I will tell you at the time. I'll keep you in suspense."

Protesters and supporters of US President Donald Trump sending their respective messages outside the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, on Sunday.
Protesters and supporters of US President Donald Trump sending their respective messages outside the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, on Sunday. PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

On Sunday, Mr Andrew Bates, a spokesman for Mr Trump's presumptive Democratic Party rival Joe Biden, who currently leads Mr Trump in a number of opinion polls, said: "The American people will decide this election. And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House."

Many analysts believe the US is heading towards the most volatile election in its modern history. "If this election were being run in another country, there's a pretty high likelihood that Americans would be saying 'we need to send in observers'," Mr Ian Bremmer, chief executive and founder of The Eurasia Group, told MSNBC last week.

Still, a particular strength and resilience of the US is peaceful transition of power.

Twenty years ago, the infamous Florida recount was, after some five weeks of wrangling, settled by a Supreme Court ruling - and Democratic Party candidate Al Gore, who had earlier been tipped as the winner (and won the popular vote), had to accept the decision and his Republican rival George W. Bush became president.

"The system would make fast work of any president who attempted to deny the results of the election," Professor Jonathan Turley of the George Washington University Law School told Politico late last month.

But others are not so sure. Last month, Amherst College law professor Lawrence Douglas told Vox : "We have a president of the United States who has pretty consistently and aggressively telegraphed his intention not to concede in the face of an electoral defeat, especially if that electoral defeat is of a very narrow margin.

"And it looks like it probably will be a narrow margin. In all likelihood, the 2020 election is going to turn on the results in probably the three swing states that determined the results in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on July 21, 2020, with the headline What if Trump loses? His reply 'I have to see' sparks speculation. Subscribe