NEW TAIPEI – For what is set to be the biggest and most important campaign rally for Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT), one name is conspicuously missing from the guest list – that of former president Ma Ying-jeou. 

“We were not invited, so we will not be attending,” a spokesman for Mr Ma’s office told reporters on Jan 11.

To be held in New Taipei city’s Banqiao district on Jan 12, the rally is considered critical for the KMT campaign as it is the final one before the Taiwanese head to the polls the following day to elect their next president.

A former KMT chairman and Taiwan president from 2008 to 2016, Mr Ma, 73, had until now appeared at nearly all of the party’s more prominent campaign events, making speeches and calling for support for the KMT’s presidential candidate, Mr Hou Yu-ih. 

This apparent snub comes after Mr Ma made several controversial statements this week – including on the need for Taiwan to trust Chinese President Xi Jinping on cross-strait issues – which analysts said could cost the party any chance of winning the race.

Mr Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is seen as the front runner for the presidency, ahead of Mr Hou and Dr Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party. 

But analysts said Mr Hou stood an outside chance, especially among swing voters frustrated by the DPP’s handling of economic woes such as stagnant wages and housing unaffordability.

“The timing is very unfortunate for the Hou campaign,” said Assistant Professor Ma Chun-wei from New Taipei’s Tamkang University.

“If Ma had said what he said two months ago, people might have moved on from it by now. But to say these things just a few days before the election will likely cost the party crucial median voters,” he said.

In a televised interview with German broadcaster Deutsche Welle on Jan 10, Mr Ma said unification was acceptable under Taiwan’s Constitution. 

“But it has to be done peacefully and through a democratic process,” he said in English. “If that can be done, the chances are people in Taiwan may be interested in accepting that.”

However, according to the latest results of a long-running survey by Taipei’s National Chengchi University, only 1.6 per cent of Taiwanese want to pursue unification as soon as possible. The overwhelming majority want to maintain the status quo of de facto independence, said the report published in July 2023.

In the same interview, Mr Ma also suggested that it was hopeless trying to defend Taiwan against China. 

“No matter how much you defend yourself, you can never fight a war with the mainland, you can never win,” he said. “They are too large, too much stronger than us.” 

Then, when asked if Chinese President Xi was to be trusted, Ma replied: “As far as cross-strait relations (are concerned), you have to.”

The independence-leaning DPP has since capitalised on his comments to attack the KMT for being out of touch with Taiwanese interests. 

Experts noted how Mr Ma’s remarks may well undo the efforts Mr Hou had put into his campaign to shake off the stereotype that the party is pro-Beijing and would ultimately “sell out” the island to China. Traditionally, the KMT has favoured closer cross-strait relations, especially when it comes to economic ties.

“Hou speaks in the Minnan dialect in 95 per cent of his speeches because he wants to make a point to voters that he is proudly Taiwanese,” said Associate Professor Chen Shih-min from National Taiwan University. 

“He has also been much more assertive in his rhetoric against Beijing, when compared with many of the old KMT guards,” he said. “Median voters who may not be KMT fans could have voted for him simply because they want a change of government – though Ma may have just scared them all away.” 

Mr Hou appears to be trying his best to salvage votes in the race against time.

On Jan 11, the 66-year-old was quick to distance himself from his party elder, saying in two separate events that his views on cross-strait relations were “different” from Mr Ma’s. 

Speaking to foreign media at a press conference, he said: “The current situation is quite different from when former president Ma was in office. It’s a changed environment and the US-China relationship has also changed.”

While Mr Hou advocated restarting dialogue with Beijing, he said he would not touch the issue of unification if he were elected. He described himself as a “non-traditional and atypical” KMT member. 

He vowed to strengthen Taiwan’s defence capabilities so that China would “not dare” launch an invasion of the island. 

Noting that he did not have “unrealistic ideas” about China’s intentions, the former police chief added: “My whole life has been about protecting Taiwan.”

But all of this may be too little, too late.

“Hou has said several of these things before, but there are many voters who may not have been paying much attention during the campaign season,” said Prof Chen, an electoral politics expert. “Now that Ma has stirred controversy so close to election day, the only impression some of them may have of the KMT is that it would sacrifice Taiwan’s interests.”