YANGON – The acting leader of Myanmar’s government-in-exile said resistance forces are in control of about 60 per cent of the country’s territory and poised to threaten the ruling junta in key strongholds as fighting rages across the South-east Asian nation.

Violence has intensified in Myanmar as the military led by General Min Aung Hlaing, facing a crumbling economy and growing signs of dissent within his regime, struggles to keep up with a multi-front conflict from several armed ethnic groups.

A shadow government allied with ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and formed after the 2021 coup, along with other armed ethnic groups, has been ramping up ground attacks with an eye on new military operations, including near the capital city of Naypyitaw.

“It has been more than two years since we started the people’s defence war. Now, cooperation between PDF and ethnic revolutionary forces is yielding good results,” Mr Duwa Lashi La, acting president of the exiled National Unity Government (NUG), said in an interview on Thursday, referring to his armed wing, the People’s Defence Force. “We are now in a position to even threaten Naypyitaw.”

While the junta still oversees key cities, an assessment by a group of Myanmar experts last year said the military retained stable control of just 17 per cent of the country’s total land area.

The local media has reported recent attacks in the capital, including on a junta airbase this month. 

Major General Zaw Min Tun, lead spokesman for the ruling State Administration Council, did not answer calls seeking comment on the extent of the opposition’s control of the country. The regime views the NUG and its allies as terrorists. 

The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution in December demanding an end to violence in Myanmar as well as the release of political prisoners.

While the resolution’s impact was limited after China, Russia and India abstained, the junta’s ability to generate revenue has still faced setbacks partly due to several rounds of economic sanctions by the United States and its partners.

Air strikes

The junta has nevertheless expanded assaults against its civilian population of 55 million, including nearly 700 air strikes between April 2022 and July 2023.

That is more than double the number carried out in the 14 months since the 2021 coup, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said this week.

He said the military has also conducted mass killings and burned villages as it seeks to deter civilians from cooperating with its enemies.

NUG leader Duwa Lashi La, a Kachin politician and lawyer, said resistance fighters have seized more than 100 junta outposts throughout the country following thousands of clashes with government troops this year and last. It has also facilitated about 14,000 military defections, he added. 

Morale in the junta has been called into question, while a corruption probe recently saw two lieutenant-generals close to Gen Min Aung Hlaing replaced.

Widespread unrest recently prompted the regime to extend a state of emergency for another six months until Jan 31, dashing hopes of a general election this year. 

“It is very encouraging to see that more military personnel are trying to reach out to us via our informers at different government offices,” Mr Duwa Lashi La said. “There are negotiations in progress for some brigadier generals to defect but they haven’t joined yet.”

With the pro-democracy icon and de facto leader of the ousted civilian government, Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, facing life in prison, the acting president of the NUG said there was little transparency over the state of her health.

Even if she were released, it might not change the course of the conflict.

“There may be something Daw Aung San Suu Kyi wants to be and we will have to take it into consideration,” he said. “But we will not change our direction for her voice only.” BLOOMBERG