Usually, deadline day stories contain three distinct chapters: A list of all the big-name players who signed, analysis of which clubs and leagues spent the most, and a lament to the state of modern football as more records are shattered begging the question: Is this sustainable?
It appears that the winter 2024 transfer window has at least provided an answer to that last question, at the expense of rendering the first two chapters obsolete for 2024. Rather than talk about the very few players who did move, the real story is one of tension, caution and silence, except perhaps for the sound of a bubble bursting.
It was always going to be a hard act to follow from 2023’s monster January transfer window in which the £815 million (S$1.39 billion) spent nearly doubled the previous record. The 20 top-flight English clubs spent £100 million this time – the lowest in the window in a non-Covid-19 season.
The summer 2023 window threw new kindling on the fire in the form of the cash-rich Saudi Pro League, overpaying English Premier League and La Liga clubs in particular, to obtain often fading stars. And in doing so, it injected cash that further fuelled the spending of clubs like Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain and created a domino effect that rippled across Europe.
However, two unexpected things happened.
Firstly, the Saudi Pro League stopped spending, and nobody quite knows why. Is it because they only had room for so many star-name foreign players without inhibiting the development of local players? Is it because of the well-publicised failings of some of the more senior stars they did attract? Is it because for all the star power they brought in, they have not seen a significant bump in attendances or overseas commercial rights?
Without that cash injection this winter, European clubs had to look for someone within their own ranks to push the first domino and this time, the usual suspects did not deliver as the Premier League clubs nearly all kept their hands in their pockets. But why?
Well, that is where the second unexpected thing comes in as the oft-ignored Financial Fair Play rules – now known as the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – finally got some teeth and the spending of the last few windows finally caught up with a few teams.
While Manchester City continue to contest the charges being levied at them for another season, Everton and Nottingham Forest have not been so lucky. Everton have already suffered a points penalty (although this is under appeal) for violating the PSR rules and were in the dock again for a second charge, this time alongside Nottingham Forest.
While some very well-managed clubs are sitting pretty – Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool both have around £200 million of PSR cap available to them – several other clubs are sailing dangerously close to the wind, according to some sources.
Newcastle United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United all have concerns for varying reasons, but in particular because of a penchant for buying players and paying later which has now come home to roost. As a result, they were simply not able to make any significant incomings without first ensuring they had sufficient outgoings. In the summer, that was where the Saudi clubs came to the rescue, but not this time.
Fuelling the fears even further are upcoming changes as the major leagues move towards the “squad cost” rules which effectively act as a salary cap of sorts, with transfer fees, wages and agent fees being restricted to a percentage of revenue plus profit on player sales – with a target of a ratio of 70 per cent in the 2025-26 season, down from 90 per cent in 2023-24.
To put that in perspective, Chelsea’s ratio is currently around 90 per cent; United 86 per cent and Arsenal 79 per cent. At last calculation, Barcelona’s was well over 100 per cent.
So, having explained why nothing really happened, what little did happen and who are the early winners and losers?
Tottenham seem to be winners in the window. While they did not make a big splash, they were able to address two weaknesses in the team with astute signings as they keep up their push for a Champions League spot. Critically, they also moved on several big-earning players to free up more money, with Hugo Lloris, Eric Dier and Ivan Perisic all moving on.
Another unexpected team pushing for the top four are Aston Villa, and they had Morgan Rogers from Middlesbrough as the headline signing.
Crystal Palace were one of the biggest spenders and made some interesting signings – watch out for Adam Wharton. West Ham will hope their loan deal for Kalvin Phillips is mutually beneficial to them, Wolves may have picked up one for the future in Noha Lemina, and City are attempting to pull off another Julian Alvarez-type deal with the signing of Claudio Echeverri.
Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, United and Newcastle all did nothing meaningful. All eyes will be on the many teams going through the PSR appeal processes in the months ahead – and for all the griping about Saudi spending, the clubs will be hoping for calls from Riyadh in June.
- James Walton is the sports business group leader at Deloitte Asia Pacific.
Selected signings:
England
Ben Brereton Diaz: Sheffield United (loan)
Radu Dragusin: Tottenham Hotspur (£26 million)
Timo Werner: Tottenham Hotspur (loan)
Valentin Barco: Brighton & Hove Albion
Claudio Echeverri: Manchester City (£12.5m)
Kalvin Phillips: West Ham United (loan)
Gio Reyna: Nottingham Forest (loan)
Morgan Rogers: Aston Villa
Adam Wharton: Crystal Palace
Armando Broja: Fulham (loan)
Sergio Reguilon: Brentford (loan)
Spain
Vitor Roque: Barcelona (€40m, S$48.1m)
Hannibal Mejbri: Sevilla (loan)
Arthur Vermeeren: Atletico Madrid
Bertrand Traore: Villarreal
Italy
Tajon Buchanan: Inter Milan (€7m)
Isak Hien: Atalanta (€9m)
Filippo Terracciano: AC Milan (€4m)
Cyril Ngonge: Napoli (€18m)
Germany
Donny van de Beek: Eintracht Frankfurt (loan)
Eric Dier: Bayern Munich (loan)
Jaden Sancho: Borussia Dortmund (loan)
Sacha Boey: Bayern Munich (€30m)
France
Lucas Beraldo: Paris St Germain (€20m)
Mohamed-Ali Cho: Nice (€12m)
Gabriel Moscardo: PSG (€20m)
Nemanja Matic: Olympique Lyonnais (€2.6m)
