AMSTERDAM – Global warming triggered by greenhouse gas emissions is damaging ecosystems and infrastructure in even the coldest countries in Europe.
“On a warming planet, cold waves are becoming less intense and less frequent,” Dr Izidine Pinto, co-author of a study by scientists at World Weather Attribution and a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. “This isn’t cause for celebration.”
Just as climate change makes heat waves hotter and more frequent, it is producing cold spells that are both milder and rarer, the WWA researchers found, using a peer-reviewed method to determine the influence of global warming on recent extreme weather events. Milder weather in northern latitudes is accelerating Arctic sea ice melt, while the increasing frequency of freezing and thawing is damaging infrastructure and creating a more layered snowpack that raises the risk of avalanches.
The cold snap earlier this month saw the Swedish village of Vittangi record a low of minus 44.6 deg C on Jan 5 – the coldest temperature this century in the Nordics. However, it would have been about 4 deg C colder across Norway, Sweden and Finland without climate change, according to the WWA scientists.
WWA analysis of historical data concluded that such a cold spell can be expected once every 15 years. However, when looking at the five-day temperature average, they found the cold wave in January was only the 12th coldest since 1950.
Scientists combined these observations with climate models and concluded that such a five-day cold wave is now five times less likely to occur under the impact of global warming, while single-day cold extremes are 12 times less likely. If global temperatures rise 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels – compared with the current 1.2 deg C increase – five-day cold waves will become another 2.5 deg C warmer, while single-day extremes will become 2 deg C warmer.
“Emissions from the burning of oil, gas and coal are strengthening extreme weather around the world, making our lives more dangerous, more expensive and more uncertain,” Dr Pinto said. BLOOMBERG
